Some Random Observations before the Midterms

Blue Wave?  Tsunami?  We can hope can’t we?

The House will go to the Democrats, little doubt.  Bigly!

The Senate, while Real Clear Polling predicts 53-47 in favor of the Democrats, I would not count out, nor would I bet against, Republican Susan Collins in Maine and, gasp, Ken Paxton, the second most corrupt politician in America after Donald Trump himself, in Texas.  James Talarico has had a small edge over Paxton for months, but the last two polls were a tie and have Paxton up by one point.  Why this race is even competitive shows more about Texas voters than I want to know.  These two races create a slim two vote Democratic majority in the Senate.

Iowa is not in the bag either.  If we get a 50-50 Senate, it’s a Republican Senate.  And Trump will win approval for all of his nominations.  Well, maybe not; some Republicans are growing spines, which is more than I can say for the Democrats.  One last close race, Michigan, with Democrat Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a pro-Palestinian Muslim whose family is from Egypt, in recent polling up a few points over Mike Rogers, a Republican with little to recommend him.  There are twice as many Muslims in Michigan as Jews, but most Christians are not pro-Hamas.  El-Sayed has the support of AOC, but that may not translate into extra votes that were not already his.

So, on Election night, watch out for Maine (8pm), Iowa (9pm), Michigan (9pm) and Texas (9pm).  If the Democrats win decisively in Maine, we may yet have that Tsunami (53-47), or at least a Blue Wave (51-49) outcome.  If we lose in Maine, there will be no tsunami!  And perhaps a Republican-controlled Senate.  Watch out, also, for Trump deciding to declare martial law and halt counting the votes (I do NOT expect this, but it adds lots of drama, a Trump signature).

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Jumping ahead two years, to the presidential race in 2028.

Trump will NOT try to run in 2028.

J.D. Vance is the overwhelming favorite to run as the Republican standard bearer, but his margins are weakening.  He is much weaker than Marco Rubio against any Democratic candidate on the horizon.  Recent polling suggests that the ONLY Democrat who J.D. could beat is AOC!

As for the Democrats, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, both of California – Harris has had her shot and could not beat Donald Trump as a write-in candidate for a 3rd term, as she is an awful campaigner.  Newsom is slick (like “slick Willie”) and is playing footsies about running at all.  The other candidates are: Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, Ro Khanna, Wes Moore; and, not on anyone’s list, Rahm Emanuel.  Four of these candidates are Jewish but I don’t believe that would hurt them in the general election (the vast majority of Americans are NOT antisemitic).  On the other hand, the growing number of young American antisemites who are bent on taking over the Democratic Party could make their nominations difficult.  Both Ossoff and Shapiro would easily win their elections against either Republican, but I think that Ossoff will probably wait before he tries (after all, he looks like he’s 37 years old, barely old enough to look good smoking a cigar).  Shapiro has done nothing to indicate his ambition for higher office.  Rahm Emanuel is a true underdog who is more interesting to watch and listen to than any active politician in America today.  PERIOD!  Quirky, but experienced and brilliant, far beyond any candidate in the last several decades (Bill Clinton would be his only competition).  AOC is too young, too inexperienced, too anti-Israel and not worldly-wise enough to win or to have a successful presidency; if she wants the presidency, if she is patient she will have it.  If she really wants to effect nationwide change more than be elected president (as she has claimed), she might have a better platform as Speaker of the House or as (Majority/Minority) Leader in the Senate.  Pete B would easily beat either Republican despite those who think his sexual orientation would defeat him; he is far and away the best one-on-one debater from either party (you should check out his Wikipedia page; he is truly impressive).  And he polls better than any other Democrat against both Republicans.  The rest of the list is made up of folks who are deliberately … waiting for the right moment.  It will not serve them.  Who do I believe will be the Democrats’ standard bearer in 2028?  Pete Buttigieg.  Who would I like to see him debate before settling the decision?  Rahm Emanuel.  These two guys are smarter and wiser than the rest of the pack combined.  Neither would be a shoo-in.  Because American voters are not too bright, or well informed, or even interested.

Why are we in such a mess?  “In a democracy, the people get the government that they deserve.”  In the end, “The fault, dear Brutus, is … in ourselves, that we are underlings.”  A 2019 survey of 41,000 (this is one hell of a large sample size!) Americans found that of citizens in the 50 states surveyed, only the citizens of Vermont (Bernie Sanders’ state, is that a coincidence?) were able to pass a basic multiple-choice test on American history.  62% of native-born Americans failed the test!  This was not a random test designed to make us look bad, it was the self-same USCIS test that was administered to immigrants seeking citizenship.  And 62% of US scored less than 60%, the pass-fail threshold.  “Approximately 95.7% of immigrants pass the USCIS naturalization test, with about 88% passing during their initial interview and an additional 7% passing after a re-exam.”  We have become a nation of apathetic, uneducated, uninformed, civically illiterate and stupid (where ignorance is a choice) men and women.  Maybe we should be deporting our seventh generation Americans who have got lazy and stupid!

Given Trump’s pitiful support in the country, why are the midterms – the Senate races anyway – in doubt?  Trump succeeded because he tapped into middle (white) America’s valid grievances (a dwindling middle class, and real wages that have not increased for 50 years or more while the top 1%...).  And the Democrats, who had been the champions of America’s middle class, stopped.  President Reagan smeared the word "liberal" 50 years ago and liberal (“progressive”) Democrats didn’t fight back (Paul Wellstone, deceased, another Jewish Democrat, a notable exception).  For 50 years, Democrats have failed what used to be their base, America’s middle class.  Now the firebrands in our party who would take back their old base are mostly DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) Democrats.  Old DSA was NOT extreme!!!  The country supported the “extreme” views of Bernie Sanders and AOC only a few years ago.  In 2016, EVERY damn (state level) poll showed Sanders outperforming Clinton against Trump (she did NOT lose the election because we are not ready for a female president).  Today, we have a new DSA, whose leadership is certifiably bat-shit crazy.  Their spokeswoman co-chair is a (expletive deleted) 42-43 year old (expletive deleted) community college dropout.  They are, in a word, Soviet-style Communists!  And antisemites.  If they succeed at all, the United States of America belongs to the history books.

The solution is NOT moderate Democrats!  The solution is more liberal, NOT socialist, Democrats.  Who are NOT antisemites and can explain why.