Friday, April 15, 2016

Political Death Wishes

As of today, April 15th, 2016, Real Clear Politics (Averages for the past month) has Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 49.0% to 39.1% (a spread of 9.9%) and Ted Cruz by 46.0% to 42.6% (a spread of 3.4%).  It also has Bernie Sanders beating Trump by 53.4% to 37.1% (a spread of 16.3%) and Cruz by 50.6% to 39.4% (a spread of 11.2%).  Finally, it has John Kasich beating Clinton by 47.3% to 40.6% (a spread of 6.7%) while Sanders beats Kasich by 45.9% to 42.6% (a spread of 3.3%).

If these comparative figures hold through the Republican Convention in the week of July 18th, 2016, three months from now, it would be a Republican death wish for them to nominate Trump or Cruz, anyone but Kasich.  Of course, they might make the argument that their guy will destroy Clinton or Sanders in the debates, but how often have debates mattered at all?

And if the Republicans nominate Kasich, it would be a death wish for the Democrats to nominate Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Convention the following week of July 25th, 2016.  Of course, they might make the argument that Clinton will destroy them in the debates, but how often have the debates mattered at all?

Strange how single party primaries and caucuses seem to prefer the extremes in a party but Election Day Match-Up polls seem to prefer the moderates from each party.  This is true of the Republicans, but evidently not for the Democrats.  What is going on with Bernie Sanders that he is preferred by as many Democrats as Hillary Clinton, and that he does better than her in every Election Day Match-Up, but will probably be denied the nomination of his party (his party?)?

One last observation.  Most every political pundit the past two or three decades seem to agree that we are a Center-Right nation.  You agree with them?  Then explain these poll results.

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Actual %

Hillary Clinton
49.0% to 39.1%
46.0% to 42.6%
40.6% to 47.3%
Bernie Sanders
53.4% to 37.1%
50.6% to 39.4%
45.9% to 42.6%

Spread %

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

Addendum: Friday, 05/13/2016
The Republicans have a "presumptive" nominee, they have cast their lot with their weakest general election candidate.  Good for them!  But so have the Democrats!  Don't you just love how the system works: both parties give us their least attractive candidates to choose from.  Wonderful!

As of this moment, the latest RealClearPolitics poll has Clinton beating Trump 48% - 46%, close.  And Sanders beating Trump 50% - 39%, not so close.

Sanders and Kasich both distinguished themselves by having the lowest negative ratings.  And they are cast aside.  Sad.  Predictable.