Time Travel

Hold on, folks, we are going for a short ride through recent American history, to the presidential elections of 2000 and 1992, years when third party candidates nearly sunk our electoral system.

Let’s travel back to the year 2000 AD, when George W Bush won the presidency from Al Gore, by an Electoral College margin of 5 votes, 271 to 266, where the election was decided in Florida not by a measly 534 votes out of nearly 6 million, but by the Supreme Court’s five Republican justices. Many remember that Ralph Nader, running as a Green Party candidate, won 97,000 votes in Florida, a wee bit more than the margin of Bush’s victory there; and Democrats everywhere have faulted him ever since for spoiling the election for Al Gore, whom they supposed would have received Nader’s votes had he not run. What is less known is that Nader won more votes in eight states (with 72 Electoral College votes) than what separated Bush and Gore. Another way to say this is that 72 Electoral College votes went to a candidate who had not won 50% of those states’ votes.

Let’s now travel back to the year 1992 AD, when Bill Clinton won the presidency from George H W Bush, by an Electoral College margin of 202 votes, 370 to 168, a landslide victory. But only in DC and Maryland did either major party candidate (Clinton) win more than 50% of the popular vote.

This was the election where Ross Perot, running as an Independent, garnered 19% of the popular vote, and cost Bush the election if one accepts the idea that a Perot voter would have voted for Bush had Perot not run, a very reasonable assumption.

But no one seemed to notice that both those elections turned on what is called Winner Take All vote counting rules, where the candidate with the MOST popular votes wins the state’s entire Electoral College vote, even if his popular vote is less than 50%.  Here is an interesting factoid.  These are the years since 1900 when the man elected president received less than 50% of the total popular vote: 2016 (Trump), 2000 (G W Bush), 1996 (Clinton), 1992 (Clinton), 1968 (Nixon), 1960 (Kennedy), 1948 (Truman), 1916 (Wilson) and 1912 (Wilson).   Not so rare that we elect a president not chosen by a majority of the people!

Americans make noise every now and again when a candidate for president wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. But the energy for that issue dissipates quickly over time. On the other hand, NO ONE is making any noise over the fact that states’ electors go to a candidate who does NOT represent the wishes of 50% of their voters. Why? For the answer to this question, ask yourself: who would be the winner if Winner Take All voting was replaced (by Ranked Choice Voting, its natural alternative)? The answer: third parties, independent parties, and independent voters would be the winners. The losers would be the two major parties, Democrats and Republicans!

And, just to round things up, more Americans, 40%+, are registered Independent than Democrats or Republicans. Can Ranked Choice Voting be far behind?