Our National Debt

The National Debt has just past $40 Trillion.  Before we get into the meat of this factoid, who are the Debt’s creditors?  Japan, Germany, the UK, France, owners of Treasury notes, owners of securities that own Treasuries, very likely YOU are one of the Debt’s creditors.   But even so, the argument that I am about to set forth doesn’t care about who are its creditors because your piece of the credit pie is vanishingly small.  The plain fact is that America – and that includes you – owe $40 Trillion to others.

The population of the United States of America is, at this moment – Augst 21, 2026 at 3:30pm ET – 342,787,505.  If we spread the Debt equally onto every American, each of us would owe $116,690.37.  For a family of four, $466,761.47, more than the value of a typical house in the USA, $403,200.

“But, what effect does the size of the National Debt have on me?”

The interest (!) on the Debt (at 3% interest, we’re adding $1.2 Trillion to the Debt, or $3500/$14,000 for each of us/our household.  And we get nothing in return for this increase in taxes) adds to the size of the Debt, which increases how much the IRS would like you to contribute to them in the future in the form of taxes.  The size of the Debt undermines the international value of the US Dollar, so the price of foreign goods.  The Debt is a significant driver of inflation, sometimes invisible inflation.

Let’s pretend that we, or our federal government, came to its senses and decided to pay down the Debt.  Not in one fell swoop, but across the next 50 (not a totally random number, as President Reagan was the first to advocate larger than necessary deficits, aka unnecessary tax cuts) years.  The annual (mortgage calculation) payment would be $1,545,492,000,000, one and a half trillion bucks plus.

if we raised the top marginal federal income tax rate to 70% (this was the top marginal federal income tax rate from JFK to Ronald Reagan, who then began dropping this rather exclusive tax rate to 50% then 35% then 28%.  And this top tax only affected the top 1% of us), the IRS would collect an extra $200 to $700 billion, over ten years’ time.  In other words, this legislative action would fail dramatically to address our issue, how to pay off the Debt in 50 years.

So, what do we have left, besides closing our eyes to a problem we don’t really want to deal with?  A wealth tax on the uber wealthy, of course!  How about a 5% surtax on wealth in excess of $10 million?  That would do it!  (Google: if we assessed a wealth tax of 9% on wealth above 10 million, how much extra tax would be collected?) (I am NOT set on a 5% surtax on wealth above $10 million.  We could graduate the tax, and we could up the bottom threshold of $10 million.  Whatever ways upset the poorest millionaires (!) the least and still collect additional annual tax revenues of $1,545,492,000,000 is fine with me.)

Some Common Sense observations about Democrats

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Prologue: there is a substantial reason why moderate Democrats are being challenged by DSA Democrats who as often as not win their primaries.  And there is a substantial reason why Democratic voters are abandoning their party in favor of Republicans, MAGA or otherwise.  Because Democrats of the last 30-45 years have not delivered.  “But, Obamacare.”  A good but unsatisfactory answer to our nation’s healthcare problems.  Can you name a few more Democratic accomplishments?  Bill Clinton’s budget surpluses?  Gotcha!

I, a New York Democrat, assert – with little fear of contradiction – that two New York City Democrats – Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, and Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader – are among the most soporific politicians in the country.  In addition, one would be hard-pressed to identify what these two high-ranking Democrats actually stand for.  Well, maybe, “we don’t like Donald Trump” and “we’re not Republicans.”  Not exactly a winning platform.

Being Elon Musk

This post is an update on Being Jeff Bezos, which I posted on February 19th, 2020, some six plus years ago.  I have changed the name and updated the numbers.  The logic remains 100% the same.

Let’s pretend.

Why Musk?  Because he is the wealthiest man in the world.  Let’s assume his net worth to be $750 billion (an average of publicly available estimates), which is more or less accurate as of today (Musk's wealth is highly variable as it is based on the value of Tesla and SpaceX stocks which – like the rest of the stock market lately – has been highly volatile.  The exact value of Musk's wealth does not affect my argument in the slightest).

Let’s pretend his fortune is yours!

An Open letter to Bill Maher

Bill, with fondness and respect, sometimes you don't know what you're talking about!

Vermont is not a socialist’s paradise, or a liberal stronghold.  Vermonters chose Bernie Sanders for their senator by 65.41% in 2006, by 71% in 2012, by 67% in 2018 and 63.16% in 2024, quite a record!  But Phil Scott, a moderate Republican, won the governorship by 60.50% in 2016, 55.19% in 2018, 68.49% in 2020, 71.29% in 2022, and 73.60% in 2024.  In the most recent election where Sanders and Scott were on the ballot at the same time – 2024 – the Republican Phil Scott outperformed progressive Bernie by more than 10 percentage points.  Maybe Vermont is not such a liberal hotspot.

AI, or Artificial Intelligence

Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein story was not created out of thin air.  Indeed, her novel’s subtitle is The Modern Prometheus.  Prometheus, a Titan of Greek mythology, brought fire to humanity and enraged the gods who knew that humans would eventually challenge their supremacy.  Dr. Frankenstein creates a creature from human body parts, and the creature demands his right to be treated as a human.  In Blade Runner (1982), replicants (bioengineered humanoids) demand their rights to be treated as humans.  In Short Circuit (1986), a military robot convinces the film’s humans that he has human consciousness (or a soul) when he laughs at a joke.  We have always thought that consciousness was a peculiarly human trait not shared by our animal cousins (despite the fact that science has no clear and agreed upon definition of “consciousness”); we have wised up lately.  Lest I forget, the origin story of all these stories is Genesis’s Garden of Eden, where our ancestors are told not to eat of the Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil, “For God doth know that in the day ye eat thereof, then your eyes shall be opened, and ye shall be as gods, knowing good and evil” (KJV, Genesis 3:5).

On Being Trans, #2

Click for the TED talk

I wrote an essay called On Being Trans and posted it on July 23, 2023, not quite three years ago.  I’m writing this now because the politics of sexual identity has exploded out of control.

My first response is simple: the political issue of sexual identity is a Republican wedge issue, and wedge issues by definition are meant to distract from serious issues, like war and peace, the size of our National Debt, income and wealth inequality, etc.  Another reason this issue is not so important is the number of folks it affects.

President Pete Buttigieg

Only if you have a subscription to The Atlantic

First, some housekeeping.  You may call him Mayor Pete, you may call him Secretary Buttigieg, I will call him Pete, because I can.

Can Pete be elected president?  I say, unequivocally, yes.

Not one of my liberal friends agrees with me. They argue, “if a woman can’t be elected president, why do you imagine a gay man can be elected president?”  They cite the presidential election losses of Secretary Hillary Clinton and Vice President Kamala Harris, as proof that a woman can’t be elected president in today’s America. My response to that tired argument is: a) Hillary led Trump in the polls from the very start of the campaign all the way until Election Day, b) Hillary won three million more votes than Trump, and c) while Trump held twice daily rallies in the last weeks of the campaign, Hillary hosted fund raisers.  Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! 

Mamdani’s Co-ops

The planned first store in the Bronx

On May 19th, New York City’s Democratic Socialist Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, announced that “the first city-run grocery store is coming to the Bronx”.

In the interest of full disclosure, I had (mis-)remembered that the first store was soon to open when I heard the mayor’s announcement on C-Span, rather than the first store will open in the Bronx in late 2027.  This error will not undermine my argument, but it will move back the test of its predictions by more than a year.

Thomas Paine quotes

1. 

   Please click on this image and read the article it takes you to.  Thanks.

   The World is my country, all mankind are my brethren, and to do good is my religion.
2. Reputation is what men and women think of us; character is what God and angels know of us.
3. We have it in our power to begin the world over again.
4. These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. 

Running for Office

Ladies & Gentlemen,

Thank you for showing up, it means more to me than you can imagine.

My name is Ben Paine, and I am running for Congress.  Not as a Democrat or a Republican or a Green or a Libertarian, because all those choices cost money that I don’t have and that I won’t beg for.  I have called myself a "flaming liberal" but my political positions on issues are informed by common sense, not by anyone's liberal platform.  I mean to win your trust and your vote, perhaps not your agreement on your favorite issue.  So, if I impress you and you want me to represent you in Congress, you will have to write me in.  Ben Paine is an easy name to remember.