Our Plague

Once again, unchecked human population growth is at war with Nature – and Nature is fighting back!

Today – late-May of 2020 – our nation and the rest of the world is in lockdown.  Because of a virus, an invisible enemy.  We stay at home (involuntarily), we keep “social distance,” we wear masks, we avoid crowds (no theatre, no concerts, no restaurants, no church worship, no ball games), tens of millions have lost their jobs and their income, many get sick, many die, and we wonder when it will end, when will things return to normal?

This is far from the worst health crisis in world history or in American history either.  But we are taking it very badly.  This is not normal.  “This should not happen to us, we are a modern civilization, and we have these things under control.”  But we don’t. 

This essay is about our new plague: how our country is doing responding to it.  And the way forward.

Disease & Death (a brief overview)

The Black Death (aka the Bubonic Plague) – the most (in-)famous plague in history – scampered off merchant ships into Italy in 1347AD, spread through Europe quickly, and murdered 1/3 of her population (75 – 200 million) in the next few years.  The millions who survived were immune to the plague and they passed on that immunity to their children.  Their children’s children sailed to the Americas and they brought the plague with them, allowing a few hundred Spaniards to infect and overwhelm millions of indigenous peoples who were not immune to this deadly plague. 

One hundred years ago, the Spanish Flu (aka the 1918 Flu Pandemic) infected 500 million people (1/3 of the world’s population) and killed between 40-50 million people (World War I cost 10 million lives).

HIV/AIDS (Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) has taken the lives of some 32,000,000 people world-wide, and nearly 700,000 Americans, from 1981 to today. 

The 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu – Obama’s plague – cost several hundred thousand deaths worldwide, sickened 57 million Americans and killed about 12,000 of us.  Obama was never “blamed” for the Swine Flu.  To a certain extent, he was lucky: The Swine Flu was nowhere as deadly as Trump’s Plague and Obama did not make a habit of going on national TV and shoving his foot down his throat every day.

There have been scores of pandemics in the modern history of civilization, and the novel coronavirus (aka Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is OUR pandemic, our plague, Trump’s Plague (of course I get that this plague originated in China and may more properly be called the Wuhan or CCCP Plague).  It will certainly not measure up to the awful standards of the Black Death or the Spanish Flu.  But it is scary enough.  As of this moment, it has infected 6.0 million people worldwide and killed 366,000; and it has infected 1.8 million Americans and killed 104,000 of us.  (The Swine Flu was much more infectious, but COVID-19 has proved much more deadly.)  It has altered the lives of every human being on the planet as profoundly as the invasion of an alien species from outer space.  This virus will not be as deadly as previous pandemics, because the living conditions of all of us are so much better than they were 100 years ago, or 500 years ago.  Specifically, access to clean water, and soap, and antibiotics, and public health agencies in every country, etc.  This plague is far from having run its course.  And who knows when the next plague will rear its ugly head?  Are plagues the "new normal?"  Look at the graphic above; what do you think?


Data 

I like numbers.  This is where we explore “how are we doing?” 

There are 232 countries or nation-states in the world.  Comparing so many countries at once would be confusing, and while many countries are apples some are oranges.  Therefore, the first question that we must ask in studying this question is: which countries should we include in our list of countries to be compared?  Modern industrial countries with a population greater than 35 million population (50 million cutoff would have left out Spain and Canada).  Countries that belong to the OECD.  And the Philippines (109 million pop.) and Iran (83 million pop.), countries that are too populous and important to be left out. 

The goto place for statistics about the coronavirus is here.  For my purposes, the data that I want to look at are total cases of infection and total deaths for each country.  But, to compare them fairly, we need to look at total cases and deaths per million population.  My data was extracted on 05/25/2020.  When you read this, the data will have changed, but not by so much as to undermine the direction of this argument. 

Many question the reliability of data from Russia and China.  I do myself.  Many question data about our own country.  But, if you utterly distrust this kind of data (official, government sourced) in general, if you believe that numbers always lie, you should stop reading now. 

So, to it.  What do our data tell us? 

First, here is a table of our 19 countries in population order, largest to smallest.

Country	Population	Total Cases	Total Deaths	Cases / 1M	Deaths / 1M	Mortality
China	1,439,323,776	82,985	4,634	58	3.22	5.6%
India	1,380,004,385	144,069	4,117	104	2.98	2.9%
USA	331,002,651	1,691,206	99,396	5,109	300.29	5.9%
Indonesia	273,523,615	22,750	1,391	83	5.09	6.1%
Brazil	212,559,417	365,213	22,746	1,718	107.01	6.2%
Russia	145,934,462	353,427	3,633	2,422	24.89	1.0%
Mexico	128,932,753	68,620	7,394	532	57.35	10.8%
Japan	126,476,461	16,550	820	131	6.48	5.0%
Philippines	109,581,078	14,319	873	131	7.97	6.1%
Turkey	84,339,067	156,827	4,340	1,859	51.46	2.8%
Iran	83,992,949	137,724	7,451	1,640	88.71	5.4%
Germany	83,783,942	180,505	8,382	2,154	100.04	4.6%
UK	67,886,011	259,559	36,793	3,823	541.98	14.2%
France	65,273,511	182,584	28,367	2,797	434.59	15.5%
Italy	60,461,826	229,858	32,785	3,802	542.24	14.3%
S Africa	59,308,690	22,583	429	381	7.23	1.9%
S Korea	51,269,185	11,206	267	219	5.21	2.4%
Spain	46,754,778	282,852	28,752	6,050	614.95	10.2%
Canada	37,742,154	84,699	6,424	2,244	170.21	7.6%

Next is a table of our 19 countries in order of virus penetration, Cases per million, worst to best. 

Country	Population	Total Cases	Total Deaths	Cases / 1M	Deaths / 1M	Mortality
Spain	46,754,778	282,852	28,752	6,050	614.95	10.2%
USA	331,002,651	1,691,206	99,396	5,109	300.29	5.9%
UK	67,886,011	259,559	36,793	3,823	541.98	14.2%
Italy	60,461,826	229,858	32,785	3,802	542.24	14.3%
France	65,273,511	182,584	28,367	2,797	434.59	15.5%
Russia	145,934,462	353,427	3,633	2,422	24.89	1.0%
Canada	37,742,154	84,699	6,424	2,244	170.21	7.6%
Germany	83,783,942	180,505	8,382	2,154	100.04	4.6%
Turkey	84,339,067	156,827	4,340	1,859	51.46	2.8%
Brazil	212,559,417	365,213	22,746	1,718	107.01	6.2%
Iran	83,992,949	137,724	7,451	1,640	88.71	5.4%
Mexico	128,932,753	68,620	7,394	532	57.35	10.8%
S Africa	59,308,690	22,583	429	381	7.23	1.9%
S Korea	51,269,185	11,206	267	219	5.21	2.4%
Japan	126,476,461	16,550	820	131	6.48	5.0%
Philippines	109,581,078	14,319	873	131	7.97	6.1%
India	1,380,004,385	144,069	4,117	104	2.98	2.9%
Indonesia	273,523,615	22,750	1,391	83	5.09	6.1%
China	1,439,323,776	82,985	4,634	58	3.22	5.6%

How deep was the penetration of the virus into each country?  Spain has 6,000 cases of coronavirus infection per million and we have 5,000 cases of coronavirus infection.  The rest of the major countries in the world follow us, from 4,000 cases per million down to 40 cases per million.  What  in God's name is wrong with us that we are #2 in coronavirus penetration in the world, behind only Spain which took an early lead months ago?  There are seven countries whose virus penetration is less than 10% of ours, without counting China.  What are we (& Spain and a bunch of other countries) doing so wrong, and what are these seven countries doing so right?  Have our leaders asked this question? 

Next is a table of our 19 countries in order of virus fatalities, Deaths per million, worst to best. 

Country	Population	Total Cases	Total Deaths	Cases / 1M	Deaths / 1M	Mortality
Spain	46,754,778	282,852	28,752	6,050	614.95	10.2%
Italy	60,461,826	229,858	32,785	3,802	542.24	14.3%
UK	67,886,011	259,559	36,793	3,823	541.98	14.2%
France	65,273,511	182,584	28,367	2,797	434.59	15.5%
USA	331,002,651	1,691,206	99,396	5,109	300.29	5.9%
Canada	37,742,154	84,699	6,424	2,244	170.21	7.6%
Brazil	212,559,417	365,213	22,746	1,718	107.01	6.2%
Germany	83,783,942	180,505	8,382	2,154	100.04	4.6%
Iran	83,992,949	137,724	7,451	1,640	88.71	5.4%
Mexico	128,932,753	68,620	7,394	532	57.35	10.8%
Turkey	84,339,067	156,827	4,340	1,859	51.46	2.8%
Russia	145,934,462	353,427	3,633	2,422	24.89	1.0%
Philippines	109,581,078	14,319	873	131	7.97	6.1%
S Africa	59,308,690	22,583	429	381	7.23	1.9%
Japan	126,476,461	16,550	820	131	6.48	5.0%
S Korea	51,269,185	11,206	267	219	5.21	2.4%
Indonesia	273,523,615	22,750	1,391	83	5.09	6.1%
China	1,439,323,776	82,985	4,634	58	3.22	5.6%
India	1,380,004,385	144,069	4,117	104	2.98	2.9%

How fatal was the virus in each country?  This time we are #5 on the list, nothing to brag about.  Eight countries are suffering more than 100 deaths per million, while seven lose fewer than 10 per million.  We have forty times the death rates as seven important countries.  What are we doing  that is so wrong?  And what are the countries at the bottom of this list doing that is so right?

The moral of this story of data is this.  For a country that with reason can count itself one of the great civilizations of world history, we did piss poorly on the grand test of virus vs. human, when we compare our numbers objectively against other countries in the world.  Why do I think we did so badly?  Culture and leadership.  Our cowboy culture resists being told what to do.  And our leadership at the top is non-existent.


Dollars 

Let’s talk about money.

The Economy Tanks 

In waves of unemployment that we have never witnessed, the United States stands at 17.2% (May 2020) unemployment headed to 20% or more unemployment in two months.  38.6 million Americans have lost their jobs in weekly waves of 3,307,000, 6,867,000, 6,615,000, 5,237,000, 4,442,000, 3,867,000, 3,176,000, 2,981,000, and 2,438,000 new claimants of unemployment insurance.  Many if not most of these jobs will never return.  This is Great Depression-level job loss.


Government Responds

How did our federal government react?  Why, they wrote The Cares Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act).  A careless response, and maybe worse.  Many people think they are being done a favor; “Stimulus money?  Bring it on and thanks, Mr. President.”  But it’s your money they’re paying you with, and you will only receive a small portion of it.  The Cares Act a) will cost taxpayers – current and future – $2.2 Trillion, b) will spend $450-500 Billion on checks to individuals ($1200) and their children ($500), c) will spend the rest on “bailing out” corporations, and d) won’t put anyone back to work. 

First, the $2.2 Trillion is new government spending, and it will cost every man, woman and child in the United States $6,667, or a family of four $26,667.  This spending is paid for by our taxes – YOUR taxes – or it is just added to the National Debt (which you are still responsible for, today and tomorrow).  Please re-read this short paragraph until you see how it applies to you.

Second, the amount earmarked for people – $450 - $500 Billion – is more than enough to send a $1200 check to every man, woman and child in the United States (not just to heads of household and individual workers) and have desert left over.  In other words, there are $ hundreds of billions unaccounted for.  So, what else is new, right? 

You might wonder, you should wonder: why is everyone being sent these relief checks?

• Folks who are still gainfully employed (most of us) don’t honestly need a relief check. 
• Folks whose income does not depend on daily work (e.g., authors, Hollywood actors) don’t really need a stimulus check, as they are used to irregular paychecks. 
• If you were laid off or fired, you are entitled to Unemployment insurance.  Granted, an Unemployment insurance check is a big pay cut from a regular paycheck, but it will cover the mortgage or the rent, the auto-loan, and food; you won’t go homeless and no one will starve.  An increase in the size of the Unemployment check for the duration of the crisis would not be a bad idea. 
• If you are retired, most likely your economic circumstances have not changed due to the virus, and you don’t need a check (even if you will be happy to cash it).
• Folks who are in the top 1% surely don’t need a stimulus check. 

Not to mention – how far will a one-time stimulus of $1200 take you?  It’s wonderful to receive a check in the mail, but WE are paying for it and most of us don’t honestly NEED it.  This $500 Billion of new government spending should have been $100 Billion.

For those in dire straits due to the pandemic, mortgages, auto loans, student loans, small business loans and rent checks should all be pushed back, a month at a time.  No foreclosures, no evictions, no repos.  The banks can afford it. 

Third, why are we (taxpayers) saving the skins of corporations that a) are going under, b) aren’t paying their employees now anyhow, or c) are doing business as usual.  And that is more than ¾ of the $2.2 Trillion.  Once again, Mr. and Mrs. America, you are being screwed.

Any legislator (including the president) who votes to bail out upper management, shareholders or bonus recipients should be removed from office without pay or pension.  Tar and feathers should be an option.

Some industries will be looking at permanent reduction in revenues.  Cruise ships come to mind.  One can imagine that the demand for a cruise on a ship that can accommodate 5,000 people is likely to fall off a cliff.  Airline travel will suffer too as no one will tolerate typical airline seating anymore (airline revenues will suffer; passengers will pay more and suffer less).  But why should the taxpayer be asked to underwrite this industry’s troubles?  If a manufacturer is not making what it makes – if Boeing is not making airplanes – there is no need to bail it out, as all its workers have been laid off; and there is no reason to pay administrative staff as they too have nothing to do as long as the demand and manufacture of airplanes is suspended.  The CEO should have time off without pay – not even deferred pay – just like the other mortals who work there.

Some industries will disappear, why bail them out?  Students of Capitalism call it “creative destruction” and we should never send their CEOs golden parachutes. 

Concerts, sporting events, restaurants, places of worship and other mass gatherings (except for Trump rallies) are under indefinite hold.  No receipts.  No payroll.   In pro sports, they will figure it out.  No need for a bailout.

The whole $2.2 Trillion Cares Act is a boondoggle.  The same is true for Nancy Pelosi’s $3 Trillion Coronavirus Relief bill.  For a total of more than $5 Trillion.  You could put every one of the 38.6 million newly unemployed Americans back to work for $50,000 / year for $1.8 Trillion (1/3 of the total amount being considered).  Remember the word infrastructure?  Now is the time. 

The moral of this story is: we have a real pandemic-caused economic crisis in the United States (and world-wide), but we need to be thoughtful how we spend government (taxpayer) money, not only because you pay for it but because some governments are just plain stupid, and they will spend too much (of YOUR money) on stuff no one needs and give it to folks who have quite enough already, thank-you-very-much!

Do’s and Don’ts for Living in the World of Infectious Diseases

Just because you have no symptoms (are asymptomatic), does not mean you have not been infected. Incubation (the time it takes for symptoms to appear) can be as long as 2 weeks.  Don’t be stupid.

If you have symptoms, self-quarantine 100% until you can be tested or checked by a medical professional!  Then, do what you are told. 

Every state which has ordered some degree of lockdown has a list of exceptions.  Don’t make yourself crazy thinking you can’t leave home until the curfew has been lifted, months from now.  No state says you can’t shop for food and other essential goods or can’t take walks (even if you do not have a dog). 

• Stay at home if you can.
• Favor the outdoors to indoors. 
• Avoid crowds, period.  Ten people is a crowd. 
• Keep your distance (from everyone but housemates), stay ten feet away (smart social distancing), not six feet.  Speak louder to be heard. 
• Stay away from sick people.
• If you can see – even for just a moment – someone who you think might be infected, leave the premises immediately!  He has infected an area hundreds of feet all around him.  Leave the premises!
• Don’t touch your face, except to wash or disinfect it.
• Wash your hands with SOAP, up beyond your wrists by a few inches, lather at least 25 seconds; then wash your face, too.  As often as you can.   Especially after you return home.
• If you must sneeze or cough, do so into a facial tissue or into your elbow or upper sleeve.
• If you can find any to purchase or steal, use hand sanitizers or wipes whenever you think about it.
• If you can find any to purchase or steal, wear a mask when you are not at home.  Masks protect others; if you don't wear one you are being ... inconsiderate.
• Disposable gloves are not necessary
• I have read – and it makes sense – that I should wash down and disinfect surfaces in my own home.    Good luck!

Masks, bandanas, sanitizers, alcohol are all in short supply (read: impossible to find).  The Demand is there, the Supply is NOT.  How can this be so in a capitalist economy?  Something is really wrong here!  Why are they so hard to find, in a capitalist economy?  Think about this for a moment.


Doing the Right Thing(s) 

Going forward, here is my thinking (and I know less about biology and disease than you do): 

1. Plagues are the new normal and we all need to get used to it.  Evolution is at work.  These microscopic life forms will fight to exist and survive and proliferate, and there are more than one Adam and Eve among them.
2. These plagues are global.  We should stop acting like we alone are fighting the fight and paying the price.  We should be open to learning a thing or two from countries whose outcomes are clearly superior to our own.
3. We all need to listen to experts, people who have devoted their adult years to learning about these things and fighting them.  We need to withhold our trust from politicians with a partisan  political (or personal) agenda.
4. We don’t know enough how best to deal with these varmints to do much at the federal level.  So, we should open up 50 laboratories – the states – to figure it out, one state at a time.   This is a perfect example of the genius of “federalism” – Governors lead, not Presidents.   Let them write laws and urge their citizens to be prudent, being careful not to make law breakers into criminals (our prisons are already over-crowded).  And we should learn from the states with best outcomes.
5. People should do as they please.  Some will be smart and take precautions.  Others will wave the flag of freedom and endanger themselves and others.
• Your right to do as you please is trumped by the rules laid down by a private establishment.  Like Walmart demanding that you wear a mask to enter the store.
• A person who has symptoms – tested or not – who knowingly endangers another is committing criminal assault.  If such an endangerment results in a death, a charge of murder is conscionable.
• It ought to be a misdemeanor for a person who has symptoms – tested or not – to engage in any social activity with unknowing others.
6. There are not too many weapons to use against the plagues.  Stay at home, avoid crowds, keep a “social distance,” wear a mask, wash your hands.  Smart folk will play it safe; fools will get sick and die (one might wish that playing it safe will protect you 100%.  Nope.  But your odds are better). 
7. Corporations should also do as they please.  Let whatever wants to be open for business be open for business.  But with similar consequences. If it can be shown that they provided a workspace that contributed to disease and death – of employees or customers – managers or the CEO may be held personally liable. 
8. This is NOT a case of choosing either good health or a good economy.  This is a case of adapting to a new reality and choosing to be careful or foolhardy.   It is also a case of who is in control.  At the top, it must be YOU! 

CODA 

I mentioned above that I believed that our cowboy culture and our poor political leadership were largely responsible for our poor outcomes compared to other countries.  But, for all his incomprehensible and unbelievable denial of the threat of the coronavirus, for all his delay acknowledging it was a threat at all, and for all his lack of a strategy to contain the coronavirus’ damage, nevertheless President Trump is not responsible for any of the individual deaths caused by the coronavirus (we all knew what we should be doing to stay healthy; some of us defied common sense, some paid the price; some had no choice). But maybe he bears some responsibility for the awful numbers who have died (104,000 Americans) already.

Are plagues of pandemic proportion the “new normal”?  It depends on your time frame.  Viruses are a life form and all life forms are born, live a life, replicate, and mutate – as long as they are adapted to environmental conditions.  And all life forms “intend” to propagate and live on forever.  Many viruses love human beings; that is our plague.  The graphic at the top of this piece seems to suggest the answer is: Yes, this is the new normal.

This pandemic – ferocious as it was and is – has ONLY claimed 366,000 human lives.  I say “only” as that is 1 out of every 20,000 human beings, or ½ of 1% of 1% of humanity (1 out of 3,000 in the USA, six times as deadly as the rest of the world).  Not a huge percentage at all.  BUT, civilized nations will never accept this number of “unnecessary” deaths as normal.  We will fight them with everything we have.  Except changing the behavior that makes the viruses feel invited to feast on us.

Will YOU be infected?  Not likely at all.  And being careful – or smart – will better your odds of staying healthy.

Costs of the coronavirus pandemic include: stress and ill health, fear and anxiety, an over-strained health care system, sickness, death; loss of jobs and income, potential for massive foreclosures and evictions; government spending not backed by tax revenues; social distancing, restricted travel, cancelled major live events in entertainment, sports, and politics; loss of confidence in our political leadership, stay-at-home and lockdown policies (partially voluntary self-imprisonment); but perhaps worst of all, a suspension of joy and laughter and a saddening of the spirit.

Good luck and stay smart.

Here, a Guardian overview.

Addendum: Sunday, 08/22/2021

Today, 15 months after publication of this post, the plague has proved to be much more devastating than we were prepared for.  The number of cases worldwide has exploded to 212,453,707 (2.69%) with 4,442,504 (0.056%) fatalities.  The number of cases in the USA has exploded to 38,519,294 (11.56%) with 644,840 deaths (0.194%).

Why do we do SO much worse than the rest of the world?  Simple.  We mistake getting vaccinated and wearing a mask as an attack on our freedom.  There is a word for this: stupid.  I call it like I sees it!

THIS just in!  "Fully vaccinated people have made up as few as 0.1 percent of and as many as 5 percent of those hospitalized with the virus in those states, and as few as 0.2 percent and as many as 6 percent of those who have died."  {Different states have different experiences.}