Mars or Bust

In an address to Congress on May 25th, 1961, President John F Kennedy spoke these words: “I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.”  He meant it, we did it, and his words still resonate today.

On July 4th, 2019, President Donald J Trump asserted: “Someday soon, we will plant the American flag on Mars.  It’s happening.”  Whether anyone will remember his words fifty years from now, we cannot know.  But let’s assume he meant what he said, even if “someday soon” is not as definite a commitment as “in this decade.”  Let’s assume we intend to step foot on Mars someday.

But Mars or Bust “someday soon” is a foolish because impossible goal.  Let’s examine why. 

At their closest, Mars and the Earth are about 35 million miles apart.  At their furthest apart, Mars and the Earth are about 250 million miles apart.  The distance from the Earth to the Moon is about 240,000 miles.  Best case scenario, Mars is 150 times farther away from Earth than the Moon. 

If our fastest (so far) spacecraft made a beeline to Mars at its closest, it would take 39 days to get there.  We have gone to Mars a dozen times and 128 days is the least time it has taken to get there.  Apollo 11 took four days to reach the Moon but a lot of that time was in lunar orbit.  Let’s say that the trip to the Moon should take one day.  At the same rate, flying to Mars at its closest should take 150 days, five months.  The return trip the same, so a round trip to Mars in a year’s time. 

But, consider the challenges. 

Who is volunteering for a year’s voyage into outer space, with a decent chance of failure?  That is, death.

The Washington Monument sized Saturn V was absolutely essential to carry out our Moon landings.  It will not prove adequate for a Mars shoot.  Solution: regular missions to the Moon, build a Moon colony, build the Mars vehicles on the Moon, launch from the Moon.  I have no doubt we can make the voyage in less than four months; a Moon base makes that a certainty. 

The spaceship that makes the journey between planets (OK, Moon to Mars) will have to be very different from the spaceship that made Moon landing in 1969.  The crew will need more than seats and standing space for such a voyage; the ship will need to provide an environment that will allow the crew to lead somewhat normal lives: living space, sleeping quarters, a gym with a running track.  How about a bathroom complete with shower, and even a minimal kitchen.  All these creature comforts?  OK, try to imagine four to twelve months out of your life without a bed, a shower, etc.  In other words, it may have to resemble a space station, including artificial gravity.  And enough food to last a year. 

The Mars Lander will have to be much more powerful than the Moon Lander, as Mars’ gravity is 38% that of the Earth while the Moon’s is only 16% that of the Earth. 

It would be silly to spend only a few days on Mars merely to be able to say we can do it.  Maybe we should do EVERYTHING robotically before we send humans (maybe we will conclude that there is no compelling reason to ever send humans to Mars).  Maybe the crew will need to be larger than three, say five to seven.  So, again, the Lander needs to be beefed up.  Not just food and survival but scientific instrumentation.  We would want to begin the long road (thousands of years) to building a permanent colony on Mars. 

And maybe we should send a duplicate backup mission just in case. 

So, while I am convinced that we will NOT make human Mars landings any time soon (2050 is soon), we should start preparing NOW and do so economically.  Regular unmanned missions to Mars to gather data and to make a manned mission SAFE!  Where our robotics get smarter and smarter.  And regular missions to the Moon, as our launch pad for extra-terrestrial travel of all sorts.  Welcome to mankind’s grand future, a step at a time! 

P.S., I believe in what I call a Star Trek future, where humans boldly go where no man has gone before.  But it will take new sciences to achieve Mars colonization.  Everything is possible (says I!), but maybe not in your time-frame.  So, maybe in a thousand years, maybe ten thousand years.  Obviously, if we don't fix our problems here, we will not survive as a species long enough to begin.

Neil de Grasse Tyson is more Earth-bound than I am, even though I am sure he'd like to imagine it even more than I can.  He says, don't waste your time,  But what dream is better than this one.  Difficult, but not 100% impossible.  But we must fix our problems here first.