As of today, April 15th,
2016, Real Clear Politics (Averages for the past month) has Hillary Clinton
beating Donald Trump by 49.0% to 39.1% (a spread of 9.9%) and Ted Cruz by 46.0%
to 42.6% (a spread of 3.4%). It also has
Bernie Sanders beating Trump by 53.4% to 37.1% (a spread of 16.3%) and Cruz by 50.6%
to 39.4% (a spread of 11.2%). Finally,
it has John Kasich beating Clinton by 47.3% to 40.6% (a spread of 6.7%) while Sanders
beats Kasich by 45.9% to 42.6% (a spread of 3.3%).
If these comparative figures hold
through the Republican Convention in the week of July 18th, 2016, three
months from now, it would be a Republican death wish for them to nominate Trump
or Cruz, anyone but Kasich. Of course,
they might make the argument that their guy will destroy Clinton or Sanders in
the debates, but how often have debates mattered at all?